PCs Fell 20 Percent, Phones Hit a 14-Year Low in Q3

Two Markets Lost A Fifth In The Same Quarter

IDC's preliminary Q3 2026 tracker, published on 8 October, puts worldwide PC shipments at 62.7 million units, down 20.1 percent from 78.5 million a year earlier.

It was the second straight decline and a deeper one than the 3.8 percent drop in Q2, and shipments also slipped 9.1 percent from Q2 itself, upending the usual pattern in which Q3 outpaces Q2. IDC blames a pull-in earlier in the year, when vendors and channels stocked up ahead of memory-driven price rises, plus supply constraints and high price points tied to the AI data centre build-out.

Lenovo, HP and Dell fell faster than the market and together lost 4.2 points of share, which IDC attributes largely to the earlier pull-in. The rounded vendor rows add up to 62.6 million against the 62.7 million total.

Phones: The Premium End Held While Budget Brands Fell

Counterpoint Research's preliminary figures of 12 October show global smartphone shipments down 20 percent year on year in Q3 2026, the lowest Q3 level since 2012, after an 11 percent fall in Q2 that heise reports.

Counterpoint says rising DRAM and NAND prices inflated bill-of-materials costs and deepened shortages, and that makers passed the cost on, lifting global smartphone retail prices by 20 percent so far in 2026. heise's regional breakdown of Counterpoint data puts the rise at 7 percent in Europe, 5 percent in the US and 21 percent in India, with a global figure of 15 percent that differs from the 20 percent in Counterpoint's own release.

The split follows price. Samsung's share rose to 23 percent, the largest gain among major makers, helped by a strong start for its Galaxy Z Fold8 and steadier component supply. Apple crossed 20 percent for the first time in any third quarter, reaching 22 percent, even as its volume fell because it launched no base iPhone 18.

Xiaomi, OPPO and vivo together slipped from 35 percent of the market to 27 percent according to heise, as Xiaomi cut its low-end exposure and OPPO and vivo raised entry and mid-range prices. Counterpoint adds that consumers are holding on to their devices longer and considering refurbished ones, while premium demand stays comparatively resilient.

Why The Price Does Not Reset

Both analyst houses tie the downturn to memory costs, and neither expects prices to snap back soon. IDC links the high price points to the AI data centre build-out, and heise's reading of Counterpoint ties the memory squeeze to AI infrastructure spending.

IDC's Jitesh Ubrani expects promotions and some short-term relief as channels work through inventory, but not pricing anywhere near a year ago, and warns the outlook may get worse before it gets better. Counterpoint expects production cuts, tighter portfolios and a focus on premium devices to continue, and says a meaningful volume recovery is unlikely until component costs and supply improve.

For a buyer the practical reading is that a promotion next quarter is a discount on a high price, not a return to last year's level.

What To Do With A Refresh Plan

Split the fleet by need before asking for quotes: the roles that need new hardware this year and the rest.

For the first group, order now instead of waiting for a drop, because neither IDC nor Counterpoint forecasts one and IDC warns the next quarters may be worse. Ask suppliers to itemise memory and storage separately, state how long each price holds and confirm delivery dates in writing.

For the rest, extend the lifecycle by six to twelve months where security updates allow, and look at refurbished phones, an option Counterpoint says more consumers are now considering. Europe saw a smaller average phone price rise than India, 7 percent against 21 percent according to heise, but a rise all the same.

Both forecasts are preliminary, so revisit the plan when the fourth-quarter figures arrive.

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